2024 YR4: Will it hit the moon? Nothing is less certain, but the impact would be observable

Since its discovery in December 2024, the asteroid YR4 has a lot be talked aboutbeing in turn a potential threat to the earth, then the moon.

The precise study of the trajectories of the newly discovered celestial objects always requires a lot of data and observation time. We generally see the probabilities of impact rising during the first weeks following the initial location, before these “chances” fall not far from 0. Let us not forget that the earth is a small ball of earth and rock lost in the gigantism of the solar system.

60 meters in diameter for 2024 YR4

But it turns out that in orbit around our tiny planet is a three-year moon tiny three times, and it now has a chance that is not zero to be on the trajectory of the asteroid.

2024 YR4 is 60 meters in diameter. If he had impacted the earth, it would have been potentially sufficient to allow him to survive partly in the crossing of the atmosphere and the friction in the air. He could have made a little crater, or explode just before touching the ground, which he would necessarily manage to do on the moon, devoid of a protective atmosphere.

Here is a beautiful infographic from the ESA which shows the frequency of collision on earth meteorites according to their size. Let us not forget that the difference between an asteroid and a meteorite is precisely that the latter collided with the earth, while the asteroid orbit in space.

A probability of 4%moon impact, really?

Once the probability of hitting the earth has been reduced to 0%, astronomers have seen in the calculations that there were trajectories leading it to an impact on the moon in seven years, in 2032. December 22 is the date of this rapprochement with our satellite, around 3:20 p.m. in universal time, 4:20 p.m. The show could be observable from the South Pacific.

He today moved away from us to return to the asteroid belt until he resumes his journey towards the sun, where astronomers will be able to photograph it again and refine his trajectory.

As far as the sun, 2024 YR4 will be around 600 million kilometers (4.18 astronomical units to be precise) and will approach it up to 0.85 AU, in the 130 million kilometers. He will start his return on November 22, 2026.

Here is the kind of impact that could be observed, this one dating from February 23, 2023:

Once again, this is the device ATLAS who had spotted the asteroid, the same who discovered the barely a few days ago third interstellar object never formalized.

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