The burning Sun emits its biggest flash of X-rays in years, right at us!
The Sun is not made of fire, but of extremely high temperature gas called plasma. Its surface is six times hotter than lava and its magnetic activity is intense, especially at the moment. We are at solar cycle 25, each cycle lasting 11 years (yes, we have been studying this for around 260 years). Yesterday afternoon, our star played Death Star with Earth. Well, all things considered. A flash of X-rays of a virulence never seen before in this cycle, already intense in itself:
And as we can imagine from the video, the Earth was right in the line of sight, here is a little animation which shows it:
But what exactly is a solar flare?
This is a very complex combination of factors (the physics of the Sun is particularly difficult to model finely), including:
When this CME arrives towards the Earth, we observe that it connects to our magnetic field, compresses it and sometimes manages to saturate it. This is how we observe polar auroras at more or less high latitude: when the CME is really powerful, the auroras are visible at mid-latitude like in our country.
So, in summary, yesterday we had the whole process of a “complete” solar flare, does that mean that we will have a geomagnetic storm as incredible as in May with auroras visible even in the south of the France? Difficult to say, but the succession of CME since the flash is a very good sign. So far, the forecast isn't as incredible as one might hope, but it's just a forecast, and CMe can (and probably will) continue in the coming hours. In addition, the weather is good this weekend in France and the Moon will not be too bright…
A Carrington-type event approaching?
In 1859, the largest documented geomagnetic storm occurred on Earth: the Carrington event. It is said that the telegraph poles crackled and burst into flames. Auroras were observed as far away as Cuba (which was still not at the poles at the time).
A geomagnetic storm of this type is thought to occur approximately every 150 years… 1859 + 150 = 2009. Yes, we're right in the range.
And so, what would happen besides having splendid polar auroras visible almost everywhere on Earth? Answer: a destruction of almost all our electromagnetic equipment, therefore satellite networks, electrical networks, etc.
Estimated damage? Around 1000 or 2000 billion dollars according to several independent studies.