Another exaggerated fear? The 2032 asteroid worries everyone … except the experts

The evolution was anticipated by the specialists while the asteroid occupies the first place in the Sentry classification which is none other than the risk scale established by the Coordination Center of Geocroisters. According to astronomers, probability will drop drastically in the coming months when new orbital data is collected.

An exaggerated fear, scientists reassure

Astronome David Rankin was the first to spot the asteroid in the archives of the Catalina Sky Survey program even before his official discovery. To do this, the scientist used the method of “Precovered” (rediscovery of an object in archive data prior to its official discovery)

During the first publication about the asteroid, the risk of impact was 1 in 83. If on paper, the new figure is alarming, it is necessary to make another reading. The first calculation reported an impact risk of 1.2 %, or 98.8 % like the asteroid lacking our planet. The new estimate of 1 in 43 corresponds to 2.3 % risk of impact. There is therefore 97.7 % of avoidance.

“The chances of an impact have not doubled, it is the probability of a avoidance that remains almost identical”underlines David Rankin, who follows the asteroid since his detection, in December 2024. Its diameter is estimated at around 60 meters and the object but its exact position on this orbit is difficult to determine.

“We understand the plan on which the asteroid moves, but its exact position remains uncertain”specifies the researcher who talks about a “Variation line” along which the object can be. The center of this distribution of the asteroid goes near the earth, which explains that each update of the calculations slightly modify the probabilities. Even rest assured: the most likely scenario remains a avoidance.

To show that the phenomenon is complex, David Rankin makes an analogy: “Imagine that you hold a stick of a few tens of centimeters. If you move it one millimeter in your hand, the other end is hardly moving. Now take this same stick and lie on several million kilometers. The most tiny movement at one end will cause enormous variations to the other end. “

The metaphor therefore shows how small inaccuracies in telescopes surveys, both timing and position errors, have major repercussions on long -term trajectory calculations. “No telescope can provide an absolutely perfect measurement”recalls David Rankin.

From now on, scientists model all possible orbits that correspond to current observations. The goal is to create a static distribution that evolves and refines as the observation arc extends with new data. To illustrate this concept, David Rankin presented graphics that show the evolution of another asteroid recently discovered: 2025 B09.

The uncertainty comes above all from the difficulty in determining precisely at the Aphélie distance, the point furthest from the sun, for an asteroid discovered recently. Visualizations show that if the orbital plan is well understood, the exact position along this plan remains unclear. “It is a general rule: the asteroids observed on a single appearance, generally only a few months, have a strong uncertainty”explains David Rankin.

The observation of the asteroid is complicated since it is currently moving away from the earth. However, David Rankin's team continues to follow in February 2025 with the powerful 8 -meter telescopes from Catalina Sky Survey. “When we can extend observations to a new appearance after a revolution around the sun, or thanks to archive data, uncertainty drops drastically”specifies the researcher.

In parallel, teams worldwide analyze the 2016 archives, the last period when the asteroid was visible from Earth. “A single observation in these data would be enough to confirm or permanently dismiss the risk of impact in 2032”note David Rankin. “Without that, even if February does not bring us absolute certainty on the trajectory of 2024 YR4, we should have a final response by 2028, during its next visibility period.”