Artemis III: a mission on the moon overloaded and threatened with failure, according to a report

It is in a context of uncertainties and great agitation that the Annual report From the Aerospace Safety Consultative Group of NASA, the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP). As is often the case, the latter begins by praising the American space agency and highlights the impressive progress made over the past three years.

The report recalls that the group “Starts to help Nasa to promote a culture that embraces a healthy fear of failure and avoids 'dead angles' by asking difficult questions about the risks“. Please note, the concept of risks at the base of the ASAP report is much more global than the only human danger. It is a question of assessing all the difficulties to come. The target document particularly the future Artemis missions, the Transition from the Moon to Mars, as well as the International Space Station (ISS) “Aging”.

The Artemis III mission on the Moon would be “Overloaded”

The ASAP returns in particular to the thermal shield of the Orion capsule during the Mission Artemis I, which had undergone unmanned and disturbing damage to its coating. Orion must be the capsule which will bring the crew of Artemis II of his trip around the Moon – without installing – postponed to 2026. This is why the group announces that he wants to follow the investigation and its conclusions in early 2025.

But it is towards the future Mission Artemis III that all eyes are turning, which should see the man treading the lunar soil again since 1972 and Apollo 17. Here is in summary what the Report of the ASAP says:

• The ASAP finds Artemis III too ambitious with regard to credits, the calendar and the current level of preparation of NASA and its providers (notably SpaceX in charge of the Starship HLS which must land on the Lunar Régolith). Too many objectives are unpublished, which would considerably increase the risk of failure. The Artemis III mission is therefore “Overloaded” According to the report.

• The establishment at the South Pole poses problems according to the experts. It is a new area with which material communication with the land is complex. They even ask for changes in the design of the landing system.

• Starship HLS is a large factor of uncertainties. The report notes the significant progress made by SpaceX, but recalls all the points still not resolved: safety of inhabited flights, supplies in orbit, mooring with Orion, landing and takeoff of the moon. 2025 will be truly critical for the Elon Musk space firm and NASA.

• There XEMU space combination is also a concern, particularly because of the very tight period to carry out all security tests before its certification.

The M2M program (Moon to Mars)

Moon March 2 is the NASA program which encompasses both the human return around and on the Moon (Artemis) and the future inhabited missions towards Mars. Experts highlight several worrying points, including these two:

• Many artemis contracts have been awarded before a clear global architecture was defined, which has led to risk integration and management problems.

• It is crucial to unambiguously define the risk responsibilities in each contract, before signing. It must be clear who assumes what risk (business, government or two).

Finally, the Asap evokes the situation of the aging ISS and recalls the failures of the capsule Boeing Starliner. In its report, the group stresses that the decision to bring the capsule back to the vacuum was a vital choice, because the start of the atmospheric school would have been very dangerous for the crew.

Here, the question of the distribution of responsibilities on the risks involved seems decisive. The incident revealed a lack of clarity between NASA and Boeing concerning security. Experts therefore ask the United States Space Agency to very clearly establish roles and responsibilities in contracts, in particular for emergency situations.