The detailed images of the asteroid 2024 YR4 which could strike the earth in 2032
2024 YR4 observed on February 7 by Gemini South before he was too far from the earth, pending his return in 2028, then 2032. © Catalina Sky Survey/LPL/DR. Wierzchos/Bryce Bolin
The Gemini South observatory has obtained somewhat detailed images of the now famous 2024 YR4, the asteroid about 58 m in diameter and which has a probability of impact on land of 2.3 %, certainly low, but sufficient for Attract the attention of astronomers.
On the scale of dangerousness of asteroids, called Turin, it is noted 3 out of 10, the second the highest reached since the invention of this measure. Only Apophis was assembled 4 before being demoted to 0, which could very well be the final fate of 2024 YR4.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 seen by the Gemini South telescope, February 7, 2025. © Catalina Sky Survey / LPL / DR. WIERZCHOS / BRYCE BOLIN
The Turin scale classifies the dangerousness of asteroids according to the probabilities of impact and related damage. Here, 2024 YR4 is 3 out of 10. © CNEOS, NASA
The decisive Yarkovsky effect for the 2024 YR4 trajectory, James-Web Requisitionized
The interest in capturing the most precise images possible of this space rock is obviously to obtain a better estimate of its size, crucial in the event of an impact, but also of its structure and its reflexivity. The latter can actually influence its trajectory and, ultimatelymodify its probabilities of impacting the land. This physical phenomenon, baptized Yarkovski effectresults in a thermal radiation born of a light color reflecting part of the light. This thus accelerates the asteroid when it moves away from the sun or, on the contrary, slows it down when it goes towards it. This is one of the reasons why the James-Webb was requisitioned to observe 2024 YR4 between March and May 2025. The asteroid will then be too far from us until 2028, then 2032.
Movement of 2024 YR4. © Discovery Images of 2024 YR4. ATLAS
The NASA JPL/CNEOS determines that the asteroid will enter into the moon orbit
1 of the 40 possible orbits for 2024 YR4. © JPL/CNEOS/NASA
Among the 43 trajectories calculations of Cneos de la Nasaone brings him to collide with the earth after entering the lunar orbit. Rather than the earth, it is also possible that it impacts our natural satellite on its visible face, offering us a fairly nice spectacle.
Current estimates on its composition give a rocky asteroid that would have a fairly strong chance of burn and explode in our atmosphere, producing an event similar to that of the tunguska, which had released the equivalent of 1000 bombs of Hiroshima and lying 60 million of trees. The explosion of 2024 YR4 would give off similar energy, perhaps lower.
Impact of the Tungunska event over 100 years ago. © Courtesy Leonid Kulik
2024 YR4 is a good planetary defense training
In any case, 2024 YR4 offers all the characteristics to activate the first phase of the planetary defense plan. Observatories around the world are now in the task and Deviation strategies are studied.
A good training, because 2024 YR4 is a candidate still modest enough not to be too worrying: his size is apparently in the low fork and he has 42 chances of 43 not to cross the earth on his way. Good to know also, his area of entry into the earth's atmosphere, in case he crosses our planet, would rather send him towards the equator, as in this image:
Potential impact zone. © Daniel Bamberger (Renerpho)
